Following the publication of footage confirming {that a} Russian Aerospace Forces Su-35 fighter was shot down within the first week of June, which the Ukrainian Air Drive reported was “a results of a profitable operation within the Kursk course,” a lot of Western and Ukrainian sources have claimed that the plane was shot down by an F-16 fighter. These claims adopted the supply of the primary F-16s to the Ukrainian Air Drive in August 2024, and the lack of one of many fighters inside a month of supply, a second on April 12, and a 3rd on Might 16 throughout an engagement with Russian targets regarded as drones or cruise missiles. The Russian Aerospace Forces are estimated to have misplaced eight Su-35s to accidents, pleasant fireplace and surface-to-air missile assaults for the reason that outbreak of full scale hostilities in February 2022.
Though the Su-35 has been used intensively for air-to-air operations, and claimed a number of kills in opposition to Ukrainian MiG-29 and Su-27 fighters typically at excessive charges in excessive depth intervals of engagements, the plane has by no means suffered losses in air-to-air fight. The Ukrainian fighter fleet had beforehand gained no confirmed kills in opposition to Russian fighter plane, with the discrepancy in capabilities between the plane fielded by the 2 fleets main Ukraine to primarily make use of its fighters to fireplace lengthy vary cruise missiles from deep contained in the airspace beneath its management.
With the F-16 having seen a manufacturing run of near half a century lengthy, there are very vital discrepancies between the capabilities of the variants in service world wide as we speak. The variants operated by the Ukrainian Air Drive, nonetheless, lie on the reverse finish of the spectrum to the fashionable F-16 Block 70/72 in manufacturing as we speak, and are very early Nineteen Eighties fashions which were modernised conservatively. The fighters no solely depend on out of date mechanically scanned array radars, but in addition lack the Hyperlink 16 information hyperlink system which leaves their capacity to function as a part of a community with different property extremely restricted. These ageing F-16s had been already extensively assessed to be significantly outmatched by the Soviet Union’s high air superiority fighter of the time, the Su-27, with the discrepancy in capabilities between them and trendy Su-35s as we speak being considerably larger nonetheless.
Ukrainian sources and worldwide analysts have constantly pointed to the extreme efficiency disadvantages confronted by the nation’s fighters in opposition to the extra succesful fashions such because the Su-35 fielded by the Russian Aerospace Forces. On June 3 Ukrainian Air Drive spokesman Yuri Ignat acknowledged to this impact: “Sadly, as we speak Russia has jets that see farther and missiles that fly farther. That’s even when in comparison with F-16s. In addition they have highly effective air defences, which work in tandem with aviation.” Ignat beforehand lamented in March: “The modifications that Ukraine has can’t compete one-on-one in an air battle. We want a complete strategy because the [Russian] Su-35 is a comparatively new jet… This consists of ground-based air defence, digital warfare programs, and ideally, an airborne radar. Additionally essential are onboard radars for our plane and air-to-air missiles.”
Russia’s dense deployments of floor based mostly air defence programs and management of the air close to the frontlines has been a main issue main the Ukrainian Air Drive to deploy its fighters far behind the frontlines, the place they function launch platforms for lengthy vary missile assaults. Even when deployed in such a approach, nonetheless, F-16s have nonetheless suffered losses to lengthy vary missile assaults. The truth that a Su-35 was shot down in Kursk thus raises the query of the probability of an F-16 being deployed to this point ahead not interact a goal properly behind the present frontlines. Whereas such operations could also be extremely viable for squadrons geared up with stealth fighters just like the F-35, it stays extremely questionable whether or not F-16s could be employed to interact a goal to this point inside Russian managed territory because of the great dangers this might entail. Such utilization of the fighters would distinction sharply with the notably danger averse methods the plane have been employed to this point.
A number one limitation of the F-16s in Ukrainian service that brings their capacity to threaten the Su-35 into query is the obsolescence of their radars. These not solely severe restrict situational consciousness, but in addition depart the fighters extremely weak to jamming, whereas their giant radar signatures can simply alert Russian forces to their areas. Quite a lot of Western sources have contested that the Ukrainian Air Drive could have gotten round this problem by utilizing offboard radars to information AIM-120 air-to-air missiles to their targets, which might permit F-16s to function with out turning their radars on. The F-16’s lack of a Hyperlink 16 information hyperlink, nonetheless, would restrict their capacity to make use of concentrating on information from property reminiscent of ground-based Patriot missile programs or Saab 340 airborne early warning and management programs. The Saab 340’s comparatively small and ageing sensor suite for an plane of its kind, nonetheless, and the plane’s very excessive vulnerability if working inside roughly 400 kilometres of Russian positions, raises severe questions concerning the potential of the plane getting used to help the capturing down of a Su-35 close to Kursk. The very excessive ranges of coaching that might be required for such a posh kill additionally raises questions because of the very restricted coaching time and expertise Ukrainian personnel have had.
The opportunity of F-16s working alone capturing down a Su-35 would seem extraordinarily unlikely, arguably far moreso than claims which surfaced in 2019 of Indian Air Drive MiG-21s capturing down Pakistan Air Drive F-16s, with the discrepancy in capabilities between the fighters on this case being even larger nonetheless. Nonetheless, the potential of close to out of date fighters compensating for the obsolescence of their sensors by pairing comparatively trendy missiles with AEW&C programs has been highlighted by analysts previously, and even with out Hyperlink 16 can’t be discounted fully. The truth that Western contractors have been confirmed repeatedly to have performed central roles in working advanced gear for Ukraine, and the numerous chance of such personnel being onboard the nation’s AEW&C programs, may have closely compensated for Ukrainian personnel’s restricted coaching and expertise.
Ought to Ukrainian F-16s have achieved a kill by pairing with AEW&C programs, it might additional spotlight the appreciable worth of even decrease finish AEW&Cs just like the Saab 340, and would doubtless make the 2 plane that Ukraine does subject precedence targets for future Russian strikes. Sources on each side have since early 2022 constantly introduced kills in ways in which would mirror as favourably as potential on their forces to boost morale and the status of their defence sectors, and made extremely doubtful claims to this finish. A notable instance ws Russian sources’ claims in late 2022 {that a} very lengthy vary kill in opposition to a Ukrainian Su-27 fighter, which was although two have been achieved by an air defence system, was in reality achieved by its new Su-57 fighter. The notably excessive status introduced by air-to-air kills particularly has led to such achievements being fabricated fully, with probably the most distinguished instance being wholly unrealistic Ukrainian authorities claims concerning the ‘Ghost of Kiev’ fighter pilot capturing down a number of way more trendy and succesful Russian fight jets within the battle’s opening levels, which was subsequently admitted to have been struggle propaganda. Equally, presenting the shootdown of a Su-35 as the results of an F-16 operation could be extremely useful for Ukraine and its Western supporters’ public relations efforts, notably in mild of the rising criticism of the obsolescence and extreme limitations of the F-16s Ukraine fields. Whereas the potential of a kill can’t be discounted, the incentives to misattribute such a kill to an F-16 for public relations functions stay very vital, whereas the precedents for doing so are appreciable.
