October 17, 6:30 PM ET
The Iran Disaster Updates are produced by the Essential Threats Challenge (CTP) on the American Enterprise Institute with assist from the Institute for the Research of Battle (ISW). To obtain Iran Disaster Updates through e-mail, please subscribe right here.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) started a three-day navy train alongside the Iran-Azerbaijan border on October 17 prone to threaten Azerbaijan for allegedly internet hosting Israeli intelligence brokers.[i] The IRGC is utilizing this train to exhibit its functionality to assault Azerbaijan and strike targets in Azerbaijani territory. The train consists of artillery, helicopters, tanks, and missiles.[ii] The IRGC introduced plans to observe bridging the river that divides Iran and Azerbaijan for the primary time throughout this train.[iii] The IRGC is utilizing the Fateh-360 short-range ballistic missile, which has a reported operational vary of 120 kilometers, on this train.[iv] IRGC-affiliated media boasted that the IRGC has beforehand used these missiles for cross-border assaults into Iraqi Kurdistan.[v] An IRGC-affiliated journalist tweeted that the train alerts the readiness of the IRGC to confront Azerbaijan.[vi]
Iranian officers and state media assert that Israel is utilizing Azerbaijan as an intelligence base to instigate protests.[vii] IRGC Commander Main Normal Hossein Salami attended the train and accused Israel of working in international locations north of Iran, implying Azerbaijan.[viii]
Tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan have flared over Armenia in current months, which additionally doubtless knowledgeable the regime determination to conduct the train. Iran opposes Azerbaijani efforts to attach Azerbaijan correct to the Nakhichivan Autonomous Republic by a land hall, arguing that doing so would block Iranian financial entry to European and Russian markets.[ix] The IRGC is probably going conducting the train partly to sign its opposition to those Azerbaijani efforts.
Salami warned Saudi Arabia in opposition to utilizing its media affect to stoke protests in the course of the train.[x] Supreme Chief Ali Khamenei and senior Iranian political and safety officers have repeatedly accused the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia of stoking and coopting the protests to undermine the Islamic Republic.[xi] The IRGC Quds Drive might use the Houthis or Iranian proxies in Iraq to conduct drone and missile assaults into Saudi Arabia in retaliation for Riyadh’s perceived position in fomenting the favored unrest.
The IRGC might redeploy the troops concerned within the navy train to violently suppress deliberate protests in northwestern Iran known as for on October 20. Persian-language social media accounts have known as for protests within the northwestern metropolis of Tabriz and different close by cities on October 20—the identical day that the three-day navy train ends.[xii] The primary IRGC fight parts within the space are the twond Imam Zaman Mechanized Brigade and the 31st Ashoura Mechanized Division, that are doubtless collaborating within the train.[xiii] The IRGC would doubtless use these items to use excessive pressure in opposition to protests.
Key Takeaways
- The IRGC threatened Azerbaijan and Saudi Arabia for his or her alleged roles in stoking the continued, anti-regime protests.
- The IRGC might use the troops it mobilized for the navy train to violently suppress deliberate protests in northwestern Iran on October 20.
- Anti-regime protests occurred in at the very least 10 cities in 9 provinces.
- The New York Instances reported that the regime might have deployed particular forces from the IRGC Floor Forces in current days to suppress protests in Tehran and different main cities.
- A number of reformist politicians proposed reforms to finish the present disaster.
- The Jerusalem Publish reported that the IRGC is utilizing members of Lebanese Hezbollah and Iraqi proxies to suppress protests in Iran, citing unidentified sources.
Anti-Regime Protests
Anti-regime protests occurred in at the very least 10 cities in 9 provinces on October 17. CTP assesses with average or excessive confidence that protests occurred within the following areas:
- Ardabil, Ardabil Province (At the very least 50 medical college students protesting at a hospital; plainclothed regime forces beat and arrested protesters)[xiv]
- Bushehr, Bushehr Province (Dozens of Bushehr Persian Gulf College college students chanting “college students, employees, unity, strikes”)[xv]
- Shahr-e Kord, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province (100-200 Islamic Azad College college students chanting “freedom, freedom”)[xvi]
- Najafabad, Esfahan Province (100-200 Azad College of Najafabad college students chanting “tank cannon explodes, mullahs should get misplaced”)[xvii]
- Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan Province (A number of hundred protesters in Bandar Abbas streets)[xviii]
- Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province (100-200 highschool college students protesting in Sanandaj streets; undetermined variety of protesters lighting fires in Sanandaj streets)[xix]
- Babol, Mazandaran Province (A number of hundred College of Mazandaran college students protesting on campus)[xx]
- Tehran, Tehran Province (College students protesting from Tehran Medical Sciences College and Shahid Beheshti College; Dozens of protesters in Tehran streets and close to Evin jail)[xxi]
CTP assesses with low confidence that protests occurred within the following areas:
- Tabriz, East Azerbaijan Province (Undetermined quantity of highschool college students protesting inside a college)[xxii]
- Esfahan, Esfahan Province (Undetermined variety of school college students protesting presumably on campus; protesters burning down Fuladshahr seminary with Molotov cocktails)[xxiii]
NB: CTP has began to supply temporary characterizations of main protest actions, together with chants when audible and noteworthy, tough estimates of crowd measurement primarily based on obtainable movies, regime safety pressure posture and actions, and different important occasions. Precise crowd sizes could also be bigger, even significantly bigger, relying on how a lot video proof emerges and whether or not movies cowl all protest actions in a given location or just some.
The New York Instances reported on October 17 that the regime might have deployed particular forces from the IRGC Floor Forces in current days to suppress protests in Tehran and different main cities.[xxiv] These particular forces items are sometimes known as Saberin forces. They’re extremely educated navy personnel who focus on airborne and heliborne assault, hostage rescue, sniping, and raiding.[xxv] The IRGC has beforehand used its Saberin items for fight operations in Syria.[xxvi] Using the Saberin forces might point out that regime safety forces are both more and more stretched, are making ready to make use of extra excessive pressure in opposition to protesters, or each. The reporting on the deployment of Saberin personnel is in step with CTP’s earlier evaluation that the IRGC Floor Forces has adopted a bigger position within the crackdown.[xxvii]
A number of reformist politicians proposed reforms to finish the present disaster on October 17.[xxviii] Mohammad Ali Abtahi, Ahmad Mazani, and Rasoul Montajab Nia gave interviews with the Iranian College students News Company, whereby they known as for enhancing the authorized framework for Iranians to specific grievances. They claimed the regime doesn’t uphold Iranians’ rights to peaceable protest and that Iranians wish to reform the Islamic Republic however are pushed to protest as a result of they lack political channels to specific criticism. Mazani known as for the suspension of morality police patrols pending a parliamentary assessment of their conduct.[xxix]
Neighborhood youth teams circulated directions on how one can confront and intimidate safety forces and block roads on October 16.[xxx] The academic graphic resembled the graphic a neighborhood youth group printed on how one can ambush safety forces on October 14.[xxxi]
Axis of Resistance and Regional Developments
The Jerusalem Publish reported on October 16 that the IRGC is utilizing members of Lebanese Hezbollah and Iraqi proxies to suppress protests in Iran, citing unidentified sources.[xxxii] The regime could also be utilizing these proxies to mitigate the safety forces’ bandwidth constraints. Incorporating overseas militias into the interior safety forces doubtless serves two major features: reinforcing the safety equipment with extra manpower and mitigating the danger of widespread dissent among the many state safety providers.[xxxiii] Iranian leaders worry disloyalty and insubordination amongst safety personnel requested to repress their fellow residents. International proxy fighters are much less vulnerable to insubordination as a result of they lack the non-public connections to Iran’s neighborhoods that the native IRGC and LEC members have. CTP can’t confirm this reporting and has not seen protest movies of safety forces with Levantine or Iraqi accents in Iran.
Lebanese Hezbollah (LH)-owned Al Ahed News rebroadcasted regime threats in opposition to overseas interference in Iranian inside affairs. Al Ahed printed an article that quoted Iranian International Ministry Spokesperson Nasser Kanaani’s warning to unspecified “overseas actors” that there might be penalties for instigating unrest in Iran.[xxxiv]
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