If Russia Can’t Defeat Ukraine, Then May The Soviet Union Have Conquered Europe?

It was the best struggle that by no means occurred.

For practically 50 years, one query dominated Chilly Battle politics: may the Soviet Union conquer Western Europe? Worry of Soviet tank columns blitzing throughout the Rhine led to large peacetime protection budgets, pressured generations of younger males to be drafted into uniform, and made novelists like Tom Clancy wealthy.

When the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, that query pale to the netherworld of historic what-ifs. After which Russia invaded Ukraine 33 years later, utilizing weapons and techniques largely inherited from the Soviet army. The end result was a failed invasion that’s now on the verge of catastrophe, as a Ukrainian counteroffensive routs demoralized Russian troops.

If immediately’s Russian military can’t defeat Ukraine, than may its Soviet forebear have defeated the mixed forces of NATO? When Russia invaded in February 2022, Ukraine had about 250,000 active-duty troopers. In 1989, NATO encompassed greater than 2 million personnel.

If this have been Star Trek, we may discover a mirror universe the place the Kremlin did select to invade Europe. As a substitute, we will solely flip to a paper time machine. Or extra particularly, a 40-year-old boardgame.

World Battle III on tabletop

To play a wargame designed throughout the Nineteen Eighties is to peek into one other period. A time when the Kremlin feared a U.S. first strike, and American tv viewers noticed Kansas vaporized within the nuclear struggle movie “The Day After.” Lurking within the shadows are the ghosts of Reagan and Gorbachev, neutron bombs and KGB moles, Star Wars missile protection and nuclear winter if these missiles had been launched.

The Third World Battle was first revealed in 1984 by Sport Designers Workshop, as a tabletop battlefield for armchair generals. Republished in 2022 by Compass Video games, the sport is a big division-level simulation – stretching from Norway to the Persian Gulf — of the Chilly Battle turned scorching.

In some ways, The Third World Battle appears a gamification of a well-known Chilly Battle novel. “The Third World Battle,” – the e book, that’s — was a extremely influential 1978 story of a large Warsaw Pact invasion of Europe in 1985. Written by a retired British basic and a crew of ghostwriting protection consultants, the e book dramatically recounts how worry of Soviet decline spurs the Kremlin into launching a preemptive struggle in opposition to NATO.

Regardless of preliminary success, the invasion finally falters and the Soviet Union collapses. However NATO solely wins as a result of – on this alternate timeline – the alliance had vigorously rearmed. This selection of plotline was not coincidental: the novel was a plea by the Western protection institution frightened by new Soviet weapons and a perceived decline in Western army energy within the Seventies.

To play The Third World Battle sport is to get hands-on with the Soviet army as NATO – and maybe the Soviets themselves — envisioned it. What higher alternative to check immediately’s Russian struggle machine with its Soviet ancestor?

For six Sunday afternoons, bent over a big desk in my opponent’s basement, we tackled the sport’s Battle for Germany state of affairs. As Warsaw Pact commander, his purpose was to drive west, seizing as a lot territory as potential in simply eight sport turns (equal to eight weeks of actual time). My job as NATO commander was to cease him.

Assault of the Pact

Probably the most hanging distinction between our fictional struggle and the Ukraine battle is the variety of Russian troops deployed. Russia has despatched round 100 battalion-sized items into Ukraine. In our wargame, the Warsaw Pact despatched greater than 60 divisions throughout the West German border. Whereas this pressure included sizeable East German, Polish and Hungarian contingents, the bulk have been Soviet formations, whose ranks would swell as Moscow mobilized much more troops. With a military this massive, the Pact was in a position to invade at a number of factors, from the Baltic coast all the way down to southern Germany.

Soviet doctrine referred to as for mass, relentless assault by armored columns ruthlessly penetrating deep into enemy rear areas. Assault items fought till they have been burned out, to get replaced by contemporary divisions.

The Third World Battle simulates this idea by permitting Pact items to maneuver and assault as much as 4 occasions in the identical flip, enabling them to repeatedly smash holes in NATO strains after which pour contemporary troops into the breaches. But even with dozens of divisions accessible, the Soviets struggled to dislodge NATO items whereas nonetheless sustaining ample reserves to take advantage of breakthroughs.

Right this moment’s Russian armed forces inherited that doctrine of mass warfare. The issue is that they didn’t inherit the mass. Russia invaded Ukraine with a military of simply 140,000 troops working throughout a entrance that now stretches throughout 1,500 miles. Even with a army that numbered 4 million personnel by 1991, the Soviets would have had problem attacking throughout a 900-mile-long West German frontier.

Larger versus higher

Whether or not high quality beats amount has all the time been a giant query in warfare, particularly throughout the Chilly Battle. NATO relied on superior expertise and coaching, whereas even the atheistic Communists believed that “God is on the facet of the larger battalions.”

The Third World Battle tackles this query by assigning each floor unit a Proficiency worth that ranges from 8 for elite West German paratroopers to 2 for Hungarian reservists reluctantly preventing for his or her Soviet masters. NATO troops – and with a scrumptious little bit of irony, East German items – are rated extra expert than their Soviet counterparts. Whichever facet has superior Proficiency in a battle will get a bonus.

In our marketing campaign, superior NATO high quality did offset Pact amount – however solely a lot. Even with better-trained troops, for a lone U.S. cavalry regiment to defeat six Soviet tank divisions within the Fulda Hole required not simply air help, butt divine intervention. Going through a number of Soviet thrusts, NATO wanted as many boots on the bottom because it may get. The standard edge solely meant {that a} considerably smaller NATO pressure may tackle a bigger Soviet pressure with an honest probability of success.

The identical dynamic can could be seen in Ukraine, the place Russia’s preliminary superiority in numbers of artillery and tanks wasn’t sufficient to conquer higher motivated and extra versatile Ukrainian troops. However superior numbers take their toll: in the summertime of 2022, with Ukraine shedding tons of of troopers a day, Ukrainian leaders feared their military can be attrited to demise.

The standard concern doesn’t bode properly for Putin’s new decree to draft 300,000 – and presumably a million or extra – new troopers. Regardless of minimal coaching and out of date tools, the brand new conscripts could have a sure army worth as cannon fodder. However they received’t win a struggle in opposition to battle-hardened Ukrainian troops outfitted with superior Western arms.

The Third World Battle additionally shows a delicate twist that helps clarify why the Russo-Ukraine struggle appears to hinge on the efficiency of a small variety of elite items. The sport awards fight bonuses primarily based on the common Proficiency of every facet’s items dedicated to a battle. Thus, my opponent and I tended to pay attention our greatest troops at key factors. The issue is that this additionally burns them out sooner. As items take losses, their Proficiency ranges decline, which implies that extended fight will scale back even crack outfits to second-rate formations.

Certainly, in our sport, the NATO and Pact commanders spent a lot time and sweat adjusting their strains to maximise fight energy the place it was wanted. This was notably irritating for NATO, which needed to juggle a mishmash of normal and lower-quality reserve formations from practically a dozen nations. Equally, Ukraine and Russia appear to depend on just a few high-quality items, such because the best-equipped Ukrainian tank brigades or Russian paratroopers and Wagner Group mercenaries. If our World Battle III marketing campaign is a information, the tempo of a protracted Russo-Ukraine struggle battle could also be ruled by what number of elite, contemporary formations each side have accessible at any given second.

Russia doesn’t want airpower

In The Third World Battle, NATO can’t win with out air help. They merely don’t have sufficient floor troops to carry the road. Fortuitously for the Western bloc, its plane are principally superior to their Pact counterparts in air-to-air and air-to-ground fight, in addition to possessing all-weather capabilities. Not like Soviet-made planes, most NATO plane are additionally multi-role, able to flying a wide range of missions, together with air superiority, shut air help (the A-10 squadrons are particularly devastating), and strikes on provide strains and airfields.

However NATO by no means had sufficient plane in our sport to completely offset superior Warsaw Pact numbers on the bottom. To meaningfully assault Pact airbases, for instance, would have required giant numbers of strike plane and escorts. However the overriding precedence for NATO appeared to be offering air help for outnumbered floor troops underneath steady assault. An Israeli 1967-style blitz in opposition to Pact airfields does little good if Soviet tanks are clanking via Frankfurt or Antwerp.

As for the Soviets in our sport, they might have been completely happy if the Wright Brothers had by no means invented the airplane. The very best use of Pact airpower was to not bomb NATO troops, however merely to behave as a sponge – or a punching bag – for NATO plane. By committing each potential aircraft to air superiority – together with Su-24 Fencers and different bombers pressed into service as fighters – the Pact pressured NATO to commit extra of its fighter-bombers to air superiority. So what if the Soviet Air Drive took heavy losses, or the Polish Air Drive was worn out? Each F-16 or Twister busy dogfighting MiGs meant one much less NATO squadron performing shut air help or bombing ammo dumps.

On condition that plane and sensible bombs have solely change into extra deadly post-1989, airpower may need been anticipated to play a decisive position within the Russo-Ukraine Battle. As a substitute, it has confirmed surprisingly ineffective. Inferior in numbers and flying growing old plane, Ukraine’s pilots are simply attempting to remain alive, whereas Russia’s air pressure has been timid and marginally competent. In that sense, our World Battle III appeared nearer to World Battle II, the place airpower was decisive. With its trenches and artillery duels, Ukraine appears extra like 1914 then 1944.

Russia’s struggle machine is brittle

Like a heavyweight boxer who journeys over his personal shoelaces, it’s the little issues that undercut Russia’s army. In our sport, and in Ukraine, Moscow’s army ought to have flattened its enemies underneath sheer weight of numbers and firepower.

However little flaws add as much as massive flaws. For instance, in The Third World Battle, the Warsaw Pact air pressure is about the identical dimension as NATO’s. However every flip, cube are rolled to see whether or not an air unit passes a upkeep verify. Most Soviet plane have decrease upkeep scores in comparison with their NATO counterparts, which implies they fly fewer missions.

Extra damaging is how Soviet items get better from fight losses. NATO troops can get better full Proficiency by resting, however Pact formations can by no means return to full energy as soon as they’ve taken harm. As soon as all these shiny new Soviet divisions enter battle, their fight energy completely declines.

Although many Western consultants initially anticipated Ukraine to be defeated in days, the Russian invasion was hobbled by a cavalcade of mishaps. Russian armored columns blundered down slender roads into Ukrainian ambushes, paratroopers landed on Ukrainian airports with out air help, and troops needed to loot meals as a result of they weren’t issued rations. In Ukraine’s new counteroffensive, demoralized Russian troops are dropping their weapons and fleeing. Nonetheless many conscripts Putin drags into uniform, or what number of drones that Iran provides to Moscow, one will get the sensation that one thing else will disintegrate in Russia’s struggle machine.

May the Soviets have conquered Europe?

In our fictional World Battle III sport, after six sport turns (representing six weeks of historic time) the entrance strains had solidified. The Warsaw Pact occupied most of West Germany on the east financial institution of the Rhine, plus most of Denmark. NATO had principally withdrawn behind the Rhine, and was starting to counterattack with some success. Nonetheless, the Pact had a big military and a reasonably sizeable air pressure to defend its features, rendering any NATO counteroffensive a bloody proposition.

At that time, my opponent and I ended our tabletop battle on a be aware of mutual exhaustion. Did our sport reply the query of whether or not the Soviet Union may have conquered Western Europe?

The reply is a definitive…possibly.

When you imagine that the Soviet army of the late Nineteen Eighties was highly effective and competent – as NATO itself feared – then The Third World Battle presents a believable simulation of how a Soviet invasion of Western Europe may need transpired.

Nonetheless, when you imagine that the fumbling Russian army in Ukraine faithfully displays its Soviet ancestor, then the sport was a fable. A fantasy primarily based on Kremlin propaganda, and the fears of Western hawks desirous to justify bigger protection budgets. As a substitute of crossing the Rhine, these Soviet tank columns would have barely crossed the West German border earlier than they ran out of fuel. Although to be truthful, we will’t be certain how properly most of the NATO armies would have carried out in a full-scale struggle.

In the long run, my crystal ball is not any higher than yours. A guess – and not more than a guess for such an unlimited counterfactual – is that the reality falls someplace between these two extremes. Right this moment’s Russian army inherited the failings of its Soviet progenitor. However the Soviet Union may additionally put 200 divisions and 50,000 tanks into the sector in 1989, earlier than the post-Soviet cuts decimated the armed forces. Even when the Soviet army suffered the identical flaws now seen on the battlefields of Ukraine, it may need had sufficient mass to compensate.

Does this have implications for the present Ukraine struggle? Once more, the reply is possibly. Our World Battle III sport featured a Soviet invasion massive on mass and quick on time. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is brief on mass, however doubtlessly lengthy on time if Russia – or Ukraine — opts to lengthen the struggle in hopes of carrying down the enemy and securing higher peace phrases.

Nonetheless, there’s a widespread denominator to each our fictional World Battle III and the real-life Ukraine battle: the Russian struggle machine is lower than the sum of its components. The bear is fierce, however it may be tamed.