November 21, 5:00 pm ET
The Iran Disaster Updates are produced by the Crucial Threats Undertaking (CTP) on the American Enterprise Institute with assist from the Institute for the Examine of Battle (ISW). To obtain Iran Disaster Updates by way of electronic mail, please subscribe right here.
The Iranian regime has adopted what more and more resembles a counter-insurgency method quite than a counter-protest one to handle the continued unrest. Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)-affiliated Tasnim News Company reported that IRGC Floor Forces are clearing some cities in West Azerbaijan Province, together with Boukan, Mahabad, Oshnaviyeh, Piranshahr, and different unnamed places, of anti-regime parts on November 21.[1] These IRGC navy items are doubtless utilizing excessive power and indiscriminately killing civilians to quell protests. Safety forces are conducting a brutal crackdown in Javanroud, Kermanshah Province as effectively. Safety forces have remoted Javanroud, blocking main roads into town, and shot stay ammunition and nerve gasoline at protesters.[2] The closure of those main roads will impede most journey into and out of Javanroud given the rugged terrain surrounding town. The IRGC Floor Forces 4th Ansar ol Rasoul Operational Brigade is headquartered in Javanroud and will assist the regime crackdown there and in close by places.[3] This rising regime brutality accords with CTP’s earlier evaluation that Supreme Chief Ali Khamenei has doubtless greenlit the safety forces to accentuate their crackdown.[4]
The regime has doubtless misplaced management of components of northwestern Iran no less than briefly. The deployment of the IRGC Floor Forces signifies the Iranian political and safety leaders contemplate the protests an more and more critical menace to regime survival. Tasnim News Company reported that safety forces managed to revive order to Piranshahr (though this declare could possibly be exaggerated) however admitted that anti-regime parts are persevering with to function across the peripheries of town.[5] The regime maintains a major presence of Artesh and IRGC items in northwestern Iran; failure to regulate this area means that the regime might face even larger challenges in different places all through the nation. The regime might face a very acute problem in Sistan and Baluchistan Province, the place anti-regime militancy and protests have elevated in latest weeks.[6]
The regime has expanded its web and telecommunications disruptions, limiting the quantity of open-source info obtainable on the conditions in northwestern and western Iran. Netblocks and journalists reported main web disruptions, particularly round Kurdistan Province, on November 21.[7] CTP nonetheless recorded no less than 16 protests in 12 cities in eight provinces on November 21, and the precise quantity is probably going larger.
Parliamentarian Jalal Mahmoud Zadeh referred to as for an investigation into the regime crackdown in Mahabad on November 21—the newest dissent by a lawmaker representing a location by which the regime has performed a brutal crackdown.[8] The parliamentarians representing Saghez, Kurdistan Province and Chabahar, Sistan and Baluchistan Province have beforehand criticized the regime crackdown, as CTP has reported.[9]
Iranian ambassador to Iraq Mohammad Kazem Al-e Sadegh issued an ultimatum with a deadline in 10 days for Iraq to disarm Kurdish militant teams or face unspecified penalties on November 21. Iranian and Turkish navy forces will doubtless intensify their assaults in opposition to Kurdish militants in Iraqi Kurdistan and northern Syria within the coming days. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan introduced on November 21 that his Protection Ministry is evaluating assets wanted for a floor invasion into Iraq and Syria.[10]
The Iraqi authorities lacks the political will and functionality to satisfy Iran’s calls for, as CTP has beforehand assessed.[11] Kurdish political blocs have referred to as for a particular Parliamentary session on November 22 to handle Iranian and Turkish airstrikes into Iraqi Kurdistan and have referred to as on the worldwide group to supply air protection techniques to guard in opposition to future threats.[12] Professional-Iranian political blocs in Baghdad are reportedly making an attempt to stop the session from going down.[13]
Key Takeaways
- The Iranian regime has adopted what more and more resembles a counter-insurgency method quite than a counter-protest one to handle the continued unrest.
- The regime has expanded its web and telecommunications disruptions, limiting the quantity of open-source info obtainable on the conditions in northwestern and western Iran.
- Parliamentarian Jalal Mahmoud Zadeh referred to as for an investigation into the regime crackdown in Mahabad on November 21—the newest dissent by a lawmaker representing a location by which the regime has performed a brutal crackdown.
- Iranian ambassador to Iraq Mohammad Kazem Al-e Sadegh issued an ultimatum with a deadline in 10 days for Iraq to disarm Kurdish militant teams or face unspecified penalties.
- No less than 16 protests occurred in 12 cities throughout eight provinces.
- LEC Fars Provincial Commander Brigadier Common Roham Bakhsh Habibi introduced the arrest of eight members of the Shiraz Neighborhood Youth.
- A number of dozen Sunni clerics and spiritual leaders in Kurdistan Province issued a video assertion expressing assist for the protesters.
- Supreme Chief Navy Adviser IRGC Main Common Yahya Rahim Safavi warned that protests will proceed except the regime addresses the folks’s frustrations.
Anti-Regime Protests
No less than 16 protests occurred in 12 cities throughout eight provinces on November 21. Considerably extra protests doubtless occurred than the 16 listed beneath, however regime web and telecommunication disruptions have inhibited the move of data out of Iranian cities. CTP assesses with reasonable to excessive confidence that protests occurred within the places beneath.
Observe: CTP has revised the way it presents protest information to make it simpler for readers to evaluate. We’re figuring out completely different properties, reminiscent of measurement, for every recorded protest. We outline small protests as fewer than 100 people, medium protests as between 100 and 1,000, and huge protests as over one thousand. CTP will proceed revising this method to optimize how we current info in probably the most correct and accessible means attainable.
Karaj, Alborz Province[14]
- Crowd Measurement: Small
- Protester Militant Exercise: Fires on the street
- Chants: Political
Javanroud, Kermanshah Province[15]
- Crowd Measurement: Medium
- Notes: Protesters gathered exterior an area hospital containing protesters injured by regime forces throughout November 21 demonstrations.
Javanroud, Kermanshah Province[16]
- Crowd Measurement: Small
- Regime Repression: Stay ammunition in opposition to protesters, casualties
- Protester Militant Exercise: Unarmed clashes
- Notes: Safety forces doubtless used hexachloroethane, a gasoline recognized to trigger respiratory misery and vomiting, in opposition to protesters.
Kermanshah Metropolis, Kermanshah Province[17]
- Crowd Measurement: Medium
- Regime Repression: Stay ammunition in opposition to protesters
- Chants: Political
- Mourners: For protest martyr Sina Naderi’s 40-day commemoration ceremony
Mashhad, Khorasan Razavi Province[18]
- Crowd Measurement: Small
- Protester Militant Exercise: Unarmed clashes with safety forces
- Notes: People depicted within the footage doubtless are protesters. They could alternatively be counterprotesters or plainclothes safety forces.
Izeh, Khuzestan Province[19]
- Crowd Measurement: Medium
- Mourners: For protest martyr Ali Moulai’s commemoration ceremony
Abadan, Khuzestan Province[20]
- Crowd Measurement: Small
- Protester Militant Exercise: Fires on the street
- Chants: Political
Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province[21]
- Crowd Measurement: Small
- Protester Militant Exercise: Fires on the street
- Chants: Political
- Demographic: College college students
Marivan, Kurdistan Province[22]
- Crowd Measurement: Small
- Protester Militant Exercise: Fires on the street
Ghorveh, Kurdistan Province[23]
- Crowd Measurement: Small
- Regime Repression: Tear gasoline
- Protester Militant Exercise: Unarmed clashes
Tehran Metropolis, Tehran Province[24]
- Crowd Measurement: Small
- Chants: Political
Tehran Metropolis, Tehran Province[25]
- Crowd Measurement: Small
- Regime Repression: Unarmed clashes
- Chants: Political
- Demographic: College college students
Tehran Metropolis, Tehran Province[26]
- Crowd Measurement: Small
- Chants: Political
Piranshahr, West Azerbaijan Province[27]
- Crowd Measurement: Medium
- Regime Repression: Stay ammunition in opposition to protesters
- Protester Militant Exercise: Unarmed clashes
- Chants: Political
- Notes: Crowd measurement could also be a lot larger, however no footage is accessible to confirm this evaluation.
Piranshahr, West Azerbaijan Province[28]
- Crowd Measurement: Small
- Regime Repression: Stay ammunition in opposition to protesters, tear gasoline, casualties
- Chants: Political
- Notes: Crowd measurement could also be a lot larger, however no footage is accessible to confirm this evaluation.
CTP assesses with low confidence that protests occurred within the places beneath.
Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province[29]
- Notes: Footage from social media doesn’t depict any direct proof of protests, however fires on the road point out attainable protest exercise.
President Ebrahim Raisi and his cupboard authorized the nomination of Alireza Fakhari as Tehran provincial governor on November 20.[30] Fakhari is an IRGC officer who has held a number of authorities positions and was a senior official within the Khatam ol Anbia Development Headquarters —the IRGC’s civil engineering and development agency. Raisi has appointed quite a few IRGC officers to senior positions within the cupboard and to native governments since taking workplace in August 2021.[31] Fakhari changed Mohsen Mansour, whom Raisi appointed as govt vice chairman on November 1.[32] These appointments could also be enabling larger IRGC affect over the protest crackdown.[33] Provincial governors are a part of the provincial safety councils, which oversee home safety of their jurisdictions.
Social media rumors claimed on November 20 that low-level IRGC and LEC safety personnel all through Iran have expressed issues concerning the security of themselves and their households amid mounting safety forces casualties.[34] CTP can not confirm these rumors. They’re believable, nonetheless, given the elevated fee at which safety personnel are dying and being injured. Unidentified gunmen most lately shot and killed one LEC personnel and injured one other round Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province on November 21.[35]
LEC Fars Provincial Commander Brigadier Common Roham Bakhsh Habibi introduced the arrest of eight members of the Shiraz Neighborhood Youth on November 21.[36] Bakhsh Habibi accused the group of directing and stoking protests, making explosives, and cooperating with anti-regime group Mojahedin-e Khalq. These arrests exhibit additional that no less than a few of the neighborhood youth teams have an area presence. Iranian state media beforehand reported on November 17 that the IRGC Intelligence Group arrested over 25 members of the Oroumiyeh Neighborhood Youth.[37] There are a lot of completely different social media accounts that establish because the Shiraz Neighborhood Youth, making it troublesome to find out whether or not the arrests have impcated the group’s operations.
A number of dozen Sunni clerics and spiritual leaders in Kurdistan Province issued a video assertion on November 21 expressing assist for the protesters.[38] The people referred to as for a public referendum on the Islamic Republic. The clerics confirmed their faces permitting their straightforward identification and risking regime punishment for his or her actions. Outstanding Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid, who has incited protests in Sistan and Baluchistan Province in latest weeks, might have impressed these Sunni clerics and spiritual leaders. Abdol Hamid equally referred to as for a referendum on the Islamic Republic on November 4.[39] The video assertion might point out that Abdol Hamid’s rhetoric is resonating even with Iranian Sunnis exterior of Sistan and Baluchistan Province.
Supreme Chief Navy Adviser IRGC Main Common Yahya Rahim Safavi acknowledged that protests will proceed except the regime addresses the folks’s frustrations on November 21.[40] Safavi made these remarks whereas talking on the Imam Hossein College—one of many IRGC’s most distinguished navy universities. Safavi’s feedback are considerably stunning provided that one may count on him to make use of harsher rhetoric talking to fellow guardsmen whereas the regime intensifies its crackdown. Iranian political and safety leaders might more and more blame the Raisi administration if it can not enhance the financial system. Safavi could also be reflecting the supreme chief’s place, or what he believes the supreme chief’s place to be.
The nationwide Iranian males’s soccer group refused to sing the Iranian nationwide anthem earlier than their opening FIFA World Cup match on November 21.[41] Their silence was resonant and well-publicized given the recognition of soccer in Iran, regardless of Iranian state media not airing the gamers standing quietly. This act was particularly humiliating to the regime given the situation of the World Cup in Qatar—a rustic that has tried to stability its relations between Iran and different Arab states all through the Center East. Some social media accounts have claimed that Qatari safety officers detained some World Cup attendants protesting in opposition to the Islamic Republic.[42]
Axis of Resistance and Regional Developments
There was nothing important to report right now.
View Citations
