Iranian state media on June 14 reported the shootdown of a 3rd Israeli F-35 fifth era fighter within the nation’s airspace, following two prior reported shootdowns and the seize of a feminine pilot. The plane was reportedly additionally shot down by ground-based air defence programs, with the pilot surviving and being apprehended. This has introduced the whole variety of F-35 pilots captured to 2. Army Watchbeforehand analysed the probably veracity of Iranian claims intimately, together with the strengths and limitations of the nation’s air defences and the dangers to F-35 squadrons on account of the means by which they’ve been employed. With the massive majority of Israeli fighter squadrons thought of successfully out of date, counting on F-15s and F-16s utilizing ageing mechanically scanned array radars, the F-35 is relied on closely to spearhead assaults on Iranian targets, and is the one fighter that retains a level of survivability for penetration missions deep into Iranian airspace. Whereas F-15s and F-16s hearth missiles into Iran from secure distances, the F-35 can overfly excessive precedence targets corresponding to nuclear websites to drop excessive diameter gravity bombs, which have a considerably better penetrative capability than air-launched missiles. That is notably invaluable in opposition to fortified underground targets, corresponding to components of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
With Iran’s air defences having lengthy been thought of formidable, the lack of simply three F-35s throughout penetration strikes in opposition to nicely defended targets stays comparatively conservative, with a lot larger loss charges anticipated had another Western fighter class been employed for comparable assaults. There’s a signifiant chance that had F-15s or F-16s been used for comparable assaults, the vast majority of the fighters wouldn’t have been capable of go away Iranian airspace. The F-35 combines a diminished radar cross part and low infrared signature with one of the vital highly effective digital warfare suites ever built-in onto a fighter. The F-35I variant employed by the Israeli Air Drive is the one variant on the planet that makes use of non-American digital warfare programs, as Israel’s defence sector has been granted permission for restricted customisation of the plane together with integration of indigenous subsystems. Whereas these capabilities probably helped to restrict the losses which F-35s suffered throughout their penetration strike, the reported disruption of Iranian air defences resulting from Israeli drone assaults launched from inside Iranian territory might have additionally been a significant contributor.
The results of the lack of three F-35s in fight will rely closely on the quantity of intelligence which Iran can get hold of, each from knowledge on their radar signatures, stealth options and digital warfare capabilities throughout fight, but in addition from the stays of crashed fighters which can have intact electronics and stealth coatings. This intelligence, and that gained from the interrogation of the 2 surviving pilots, may very well be of serious curiosity to Iran’s strategic companions corresponding to North Korea and China, which themselves confront important F-35 fleets deployed by the U.S. and its allies in Northeast Asia. The F-35 was developed below the most important weapons program in historical past, and is the one fighter of its era in manufacturing within the Western world, the place it’s closely relied on to counter China’s personal J-20 and FC-31 fifth era plane. The American plane was particularly developed with the first mission of penetrating and neutralising superior enemy air defences, which made it optimum for Israeli operations in opposition to Iran, and beforehand in opposition to Syria earlier than the state’s fall to Turkish and Israeli backed insurgents in December 2024. Iran’s capability to defend in opposition to penetration assaults by F-35s is predicted to enhance each as its armed forces achieve a greater understanding of the plane, and because the nation begins to obtain fashionable fighter plane at the moment on order to help its ground-based air defences.
