One in every of Poland’s most influential navy thinkers and president of Academy24, Common (ret.) Jaroslaw Gromadzinski, has advocated a significant shift within the nation’s defence posture aimed particularly at getting ready for warfare with Russia. His assertion mirror a broader consensus in Warsaw, which has invested significantly closely in increasing its navy capabilities with giant scale tools orders from South Korea and the US. Gromadzinski argued that Poland wanted to embrace an “lively defence,” and be able to function “throughout the complete operational depth of the opponent” by getting ready to launch assaults throughout Russian territory. He additionally burdened the necessity to createa million man reserve pressure, advocating a system modelled on that of Switzerland beneath which reservists would stay in lively reserve models for years and periodically replace their expertise. “Nobody will persuade me that in a rustic of 38 million, we can not construct a reserve of 1 million individuals,” he acknowledged concerning the nation’s potential to attain these targets.
Elaborating on the significance of a reserve pressure that might be in a short time mobilised, Gromadzinski famous: “We’re a front-line state. Time is our most important useful resource. We won’t have weeks to activate our forces within the occasion of warfare,” he mentioned. Relating to the means by which the Polish Army may launch assaults deep into Russia within the occasion of warfare, he added that the lately ordered American HIMARS and South Korean Chunmoo rocket artillery programs might be of explicit worth. “Why can we purchase these programs? The Russians should know that within the occasion of aggression, we are going to use them to strike targets on their territory,” he mentioned. He additionally significantly emphasised his nation’s lack of operational depth, in distinction to neighbouring Ukraine which is sort of twice as giant. His assertion carefully follows the unprecedented deployment of HIMARS programs throughout Russia’s northern border in Finland on the finish of Could, which served to attract consideration to the extent to which the arsenal is being expanded, and the potential for it getting used to strike from the territory of different NATO members ought to the alliance go to warfare collectively.
Gromadzinski’s insights notably echo these made by former Polish chief of the Common Employees Rajmund Andrzejczak in October 2024, which projected a a lot modified safety scenario for Poland ought to Ukraine’s territory be totally taken by Russian forces. “After a Russian victory in Ukraine, we’d have a Russian division in Lviv, one in Brest and one in Grodno,” he acknowledged on the time, including: “In the event that they assault even an inch of Lithuanian territory, the response will come instantly. Not on the primary day, however within the first minute. We are going to hit all strategic targets inside a radius of 300km. We are going to assault St. Petersburg straight.” He additional famous that Warsaw wanted to “take the initiative” in deterring Moscow. “Russia should realise that an assault on Poland or the Baltic international locations would additionally imply its finish… That’s the solely approach to deter the Kremlin from such aggression,” Andrzejczak elaborated, highlighting the Defence Ministry’s procurement of “800 missiles with a variety of 900 km,” in reference to the purchases of ATACMS missiles for the HIMARS programs.
Poland’s potential to assault Russian targets utilizing rocket artillery is anticipated to be probably the most formidable inside NATO by the mid-2030s. After the primary order for HIMARS was positioned in 2019, the Polish authorities in September 2023 permitted plans to obtain 486 extra of the programs. In October 2022 a $6 billion framework settlement was additionally signed for the acquisition of 288 South Korean K239 Chunmoo rocket artillery launchers and hundreds of 239mm rockets and 600mm missiles, earlier than a brand new $1.6 billion order was signed in April 2024 for to acquisition of 72 extra launchers. These orders mirrored broader very giant scale investments within the nation’s floor forces, with procurements of South Korean K2 tanks set to achieve 96 automobiles in 2025, of a deliberate complete of 1000 tanks, whereas orders have additionally been positioned for 116 M1A1 and 250 M1A2 Abrams tanks, and 332 South Korean K9 self propelled howitzers.
Large losses suffered by many elite Ukrainian Army models throughout a big scale incursion into the Russian Kursk area, unsustainable casualty charges, and heavy losses of recent Western tools despatched to the nation, have been among the many components shifting the Western consensus on the warfare in direction of pessimism from late 2024. These tendencies have strengthened since then, with the explosion of Ukrainian forces from Kursk, seize of the Lugansk area, advances into Sumy, and the entry of North Korean forces into the warfare, having been additional components influencing this. Warsaw has stood out amongst NATO member states not just for its outstandingly hardline place towards doable peace talks with Russia, but additionally for the significantly giant scale of its manpower and materials contributions to the Ukrainian warfare effort. Polish contractor models such because the Polish Volunteer Corps have already performed a very central position within the warfare effort on a number of fronts, together with lately within the Sumy area.
