The approaching menace that Russia faces is the exhaustion of imported civil plane because of the finish of their service life or the unavailability of spare elements. This potential aviation disaster stands on the shoulders of a home airplane trade that’s struggling to supply plane.
The state of affairs prompts the query: has this system failed? There’s little to recommend in any other case. The much-hyped home plane, Superjet NEW, and MS-21, have but to materialize past the drafting board. In the meantime, Russia’s factories appear incapable of manufacturing even the Soviet Tu-214 — a mannequin that first took flight on January 2, 1989.
Regardless of a plan for 3 Tu-214s to be delivered to shoppers in 2023, none had been. The possible patrons stay unclear, nevertheless it’s a negligible element. Aeroflot’s ongoing negotiations with the United Plane Company [UAC] level to a promising partnership but to show profitable.
The strain of those stalled plans appears to be detracting from progress in the direction of the “new” Superjet and MC-21. The MC-21 continues to be with out an engine, though there are preliminary plans to supply a number of PD-14s in 2023.
In gentle of those setbacks, Russia’s authorities assert formidable plans to fabricate 600 airplanes by 2030. This ambition comes with a hefty monetary backing of an additional 280 billion rubles. It’s meant to revive the “decaying” Il-96−300 and Tu-214, alongside the Soviet-era Il-114.
As Viktor Gorbachev, Director Common of the Civil Aviation Affiliation factors out: “With our present planes — Boeing and Airbus, now we have seven or eight years’ value. The Superjet and MS-21 might fly one other 12 months earlier than they get licensed… there are over a hundred subcontractors! And all this requires further manufacturing capability and folks.”
The predicament emphasizes that simply throwing cash on the drawback gained’t yield airplanes. Does 280 billion rubles in the direction of factories translate into precise plane?
The “import substitution” that began following the annexation of Crimea ten years in the past has but to yield passable outcomes. It seems that “Technique 2020” and comparable tasks have remained simply that – concepts on the drafting board. Regardless of priority, Russian President Vladimir Putin stays optimistic.
“By 2030, greater than 500 plane of assorted sorts must be produced per program: 270 MS-21 plane, 142 Superjet-100 plane, and 115 Tu-214 plane,” the top of Rostech, Sergey Chemezov, introduced on the finish of 2024. This assertion was a disclaimer to Putin’s earlier formidable purpose.
Regardless of these official numbers being floated, a disheartening fact emerges — with out imported spare elements, even the best passenger automobile can’t be assembled. Placing collectively a Russian avionics system is a distant dream below present circumstances.
At present, Russia struggles to generate elements for even its dormant Soviet-era planes. It appears the data and talent have evaporated, leaving these as soon as wonderful birds grounded. Regardless of this shortage, no effort appears to be underway to repair this aviation tragedy.
Again in 2014, Putin suggested that Russia should “run in ten years, or we will likely be crushed”. Now dealing with the fact of this assertion, Russia stands on the point of an aviation disaster. The second warning got here in Spring 2022 — a name that has been duly ignored.
To sum it up, at greatest, Russia can produce a handful of plane towards its formidable 280 billion ruble funding. This colossal funding would solely yield An-2 substitutes, yet one more forgotten design. Certainly, by present calculations, such returns could be a testomony to the nation’s disheartened aviation trade.
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The evaluation was made by the Russian media Svobodnaya Presa [Free Press]. Assessments, opinions, and feedback on the topic on this textual content don’t replicate the place of BulgarianMilitary.com
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