Russian Offensive Marketing campaign Evaluation, July 6

Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, George Barros, Grace Mappes, and Frederick W. Kagan

July 6, 6:00 pm ET

Click on right here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is up to date each day alongside the static maps current on this report.

There have been no claimed or assessed Russian territorial good points in Ukraine on July 6 for the primary time in 133 days of struggle, supporting ISW’s evaluation that Russian forces have largely initiated an operational pause.[1] The Russian Protection Ministry claimed territorial good points on daily basis from the beginning of the struggle however has not claimed any new territory or floor pressure actions since finishing the encirclement of Lysychansk on July 3.[2] Nevertheless, Russian forces nonetheless carried out restricted and unsuccessful floor assaults throughout all axes on July 6.[3] Such makes an attempt are per a Russian operational pause, which doesn’t indicate or require the entire cessation of lively hostilities. It means, on this case, that Russian forces will probably confine themselves to comparatively small-scale offensive actions as they try and set circumstances for extra vital offensive operations and rebuild the fight energy wanted to aim these extra formidable undertakings.   

The Kremlin continued to set circumstances for the crypto-mobilization of the Russian financial system in anticipation of protracted operations in Ukraine. The Russian State Duma adopted the third and closing studying of a regulation launched by the cupboard of ministers on June 30 that can permit the Russian authorities to supervise and regulate labor relations in Russian enterprises (each state and privately-owned).[4] This regulation, as ISW has beforehand reported, will permit authorities officers to recall staff from private holidays, reschedule break day with out worker consent, and require workers to work weekends, holidays, and nights. These measures permit the Kremlin to take far more direct management of most points of the Russian financial system, together with suspending rights and protections some staff would usually have.[5] The regulation should nonetheless be despatched to the Federation Council earlier than it reaches Russian President Vladimir Putin and is formally printed, however the Kremlin is probably going searching for to make use of the regulation to leverage home labor to maximise financial output and put together for protracted operations in Ukraine.[6] Russia’s largest lead manufacturing plant reportedly stopped manufacturing on July 6 because of the almost-total halt of Russian metallurgical exports, and the Kremlin will probably proceed to take measures to codify financial mobilization to offset or mitigate the consequences of sanctions and the struggle on important industries.[7]

Key Takeaways

  • The Russian Ministry of Protection has not claimed any territorial good points since July 3, supporting the evaluation that Russian forces are conducting an operational pause whereas nonetheless partaking in restricted floor assaults to set circumstances for extra vital offensive operations.
  • The Kremlin continues to arrange for a protracted struggle by setting circumstances for crypto-mobilization of the financial system and largely initiating an operational pause in Ukraine.
  • Russian forces carried out offensive operations northwest and east of Slovyansk.
  • Russian forces continued efforts to push westward towards Siversk from the Luhansk-Donetsk oblast border.
  • Russian forces continued makes an attempt to advance towards Bakhmut from the south.
  • Russian forces carried out restricted floor assaults north of Kharkiv Metropolis.
  • Russian forces carried out unsuccessful floor assaults in northwestern Kherson Oblast.
  • Ukrainian forces could also be setting circumstances for a counteroffensive towards Kherson Metropolis.
  • Russian forces could also be forming a brand new army unit in Mulino, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast.

We don’t report intimately on Russian struggle crimes as a result of these actions are well-covered in Western media and don’t instantly have an effect on the army operations we’re assessing and forecasting. We’ll proceed to judge and report on the consequences of those prison actions on the Ukrainian army and inhabitants and particularly on fight in Ukrainian city areas. We totally condemn these Russian violations of the legal guidelines of armed battle, Geneva Conventions, and humanity although we don’t describe them in these reviews.

  • Principal Effort—Jap Ukraine (comprised of 1 subordinate and three supporting efforts);
  • Subordinate Principal Effort—Encirclement of Ukrainian Troops within the Cauldron between Izyum and Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts
  • Supporting Effort 1—Kharkiv Metropolis
  • Supporting Effort 2—Southern Axis
  • Mobilization and Power Era Efforts
  • Actions in Russian-occupied Areas

Principal Effort—Jap Ukraine

Subordinate Principal Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian goal: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Jap Ukraine and seize the whole lot of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces continued offensive operations southeast of Izyum and west of Lyman towards Slovyansk on July 6. The Ukrainian Normal Workers reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully tried to advance from Dovhenke to Mazanivka, about 20 km northwest of Slovyansk alongside the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border.[8] The UK Ministry of Protection famous that Russian forces have probably superior 5 km towards Slovyansk alongside the E40 freeway and are actually inside 16 km north of Slovyansk itself, which is per ISW’s present control-of-terrain assessments.[9] NASA Fireplace Data for Useful resource Administration (FIRMS) information additionally reveals a cluster of fires round Raihorodok, indicating that Russian forces are probably persevering with to conduct strikes east of Slovyansk to set circumstances for westward advances from the Lyman space.[10]

[Source: NASA Fire Information for Resource Management data for the Raihorodok area on July 6]

Russian forces continued offensive operations towards Siversk from west of Lysychansk and the Luhansk Oblast border on July 6. Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai said that Russian and Ukrainian troops proceed to combat close to Lysychansk alongside the Luhansk Oblast border.[11] The Ukrainian Normal Workers additionally said that Russian forces unsuccessfully fought round Spirne (15 km southeast of Siversk), Verkhnokamyanske (5 km east of Siversk), Hryhorvika (10km northeast of Siversk), and Bilohorivka (15 km northeast of Siversk).[12] Russian forces reportedly carried out artillery and air strikes south of Siversk round Zvanivka, Vesele, and Vyimka.[13] NASA FIRMS information confirms these reviews and reveals fires close to the Luhansk-Donetsk Oblast border to the south and east of Siversk on July 6.

[Source: NASA Fire Information for Resource Management Data for the Siversk area on July 6]

Russian forces continued floor assaults south of Bakhmut on July 6. The Ukrainian Normal Workers said that Ukrainian troops repelled tried Russian advances within the route of Myronivka-Luhanske, Holmivskyi-Novoluhanske, and Vershyna, all south of Bakhmut and close to the important E40 or T0513 highways that run north into Bakhmut.[14] Residents of Bakhmut noticed direct Russian artillery strikes on the town, indicating that Russian forces are persevering with to set circumstances to launch an assault on the town itself.[15]

Russian forces within the Donetsk Metropolis space continued to fireside on Ukrainian positions alongside the Avdiivka-Donetsk Metropolis line of contact however didn’t make any confirmed advances on July 6.[16]


Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv Metropolis (Russian goal: Defend floor traces of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum and stop Ukrainian forces from reaching the Russian border)

Russian forces continued trying restricted floor assaults north of Kharkiv Metropolis on July 6. The Ukrainian Normal Workers reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault within the route of Kozacha Lopan-Sosnivka.[17] Russian Telegram channel Rybar claimed that preventing is ongoing west of Sosnivka and in Svitlychne (8 km southwest of Sosnivka), in addition to in Pytomnyk, 20 km north of Kharkiv Metropolis.[18] Russian forces continued air and artillery strikes on Ukrainian pressure concentrations and army and civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv Metropolis and the encircling settlements.[19] The Derhachi Metropolis Council reported that Russian forces shelled Derhachi with incendiary munitions.[20] Russian forces shelled Derhachi, Mala Danylivka, Prudyanka, and Slatyne alongside the T2117 freeway and Pytomnyk on the E105 freeway to Kharkiv Metropolis.[21]

Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Russian goal: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts in opposition to Ukrainian counterattacks)

Russian forces carried out unsuccessful offensive operations in northwestern Kherson Oblast and are persevering with to fireside artillery all through the Southern Axis to repel Ukrainian counteroffensives. The Ukrainian Normal Workers reported that Ukrainian forces stopped Russian assaults within the route of Lozove, on the jap financial institution of the Inhulets River and the Kherson-Mykolaiv Oblast border.[22] FIRMS’ remotely sensed information confirmed a excessive variety of fires alongside the Kherson-Mykolaiv and Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border. Geolocated footage confirmed Ukrainian and Russian forces engaged in artillery fireplace close to Snihurivka and Andriivka on the Kherson-Mykolaiv Oblast border.[23] The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command added that Russian forces launched missile strikes on residential infrastructure in Nechayane (roughly 33 km west of Mykolaiv Metropolis), however Russian Telegram channels claimed that Russian missiles struck Ukrainian positions.[24]

[Source: NASA Fire Information for Resource Management Data for Kherson-Mykolaiv and Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border for July 6]

[Source: NASA Fire Information for Resource Management Data for Zaporizhia Oblast for July 6]

Ukrainian forces proceed to set circumstances for a counteroffensive on Kherson Metropolis. Geolocated satellite tv for pc imagery confirmed that Ukrainian forces struck Russian positions across the Kherson Metropolis Worldwide Airport within the Chornobaivka space.[25] Kherson Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Khlan reported that Ukrainian forces additionally struck a Russian ammunition depot in Kherson Metropolis’s railway station on July 5.[26] Ukrainian Advisor to the Inside Affairs Minister Anton Gerashchenko printed social media footage displaying that Russian forces put in countermeasures in opposition to precision-guided munitions across the Kerch Bridge.[27]

Mobilization and Power Era Efforts (Russian goal: Develop fight energy with out conducting normal mobilization)

Russian forces started accumulating army gear on the 1st Guards Tank Army coaching floor in Mulino, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, prone to help the formation of a brand new army unit. Ukraine’s Battle Intelligence Staff (CIT) noticed Russian army autos (presumably taken out of storage) heading in direction of Mulino over the previous few weeks.[28] CIT added that an unnamed Russian army supply claimed that Russian army commanders are forming a third Army Corps in Mulino, however it’s unclear if the Russians are creating a third Corps throughout the Russian Floor Forces correct or integrating the brand new unit with current LNR and DNR 1st and 2nd Army Corps or another group.[29] The Russian Floor Forces command construction doesn’t at present have a daily corps echelon–it retains remoted corps related to some fleets and in Kaliningrad.  CIT famous that such proof helps former Kyiv Oblast Administration Head Oleksandr Pavlyuk’s reviews that Russian forces are forming a 15,500-person-strong third Army Corps throughout the Western Navy District (WMD).[30] ISW can’t independently confirm CIT or Pavlyuk’s statements, however Russian Protection Minister Sergey Shoigu had beforehand introduced plans to create 12 new WMD items of unspecified echelon on Could 20.[31]

Russian forces proceed to face personnel technology and covert mobilization challenges. Director of Rochan Consulting Konrad Muzyka cited Finnish outlet Yle, which famous that the Russian military has despatched at the least one battalion tactical group (BTG) from the eightieth Arctic Motorized Rifle Brigade (beforehand stationed near the Finnish border in Alakurtti) to help the invasion of Ukraine.[32] The satellite tv for pc imagery confirmed that Russian forces have withdrawn 100 army autos in Could from Alakurtti and roughly 700 servicemen left the bottom in mid-Could.[33] The eightieth Arctic Motorized Rifle Brigade was reportedly the final northern brigade to enter the Russian struggle in Ukraine.[34] Professional-Kremlin media shops introduced the deployment of a brand new volunteer battalion from the Republic of Bashkortostan (north of Kazakhstan) to Donbas on July 6.[35] The Russian group “Veterans of the Marine Corps and Special Forces of the Navy” introduced the creation of the battalion on the finish of Could and famous that servicemen obtained a month of coaching earlier than deployment.[36] A month is probably going not sufficient time to sufficiently put together the battalion for frontline hostilities in Donbas. The Republic of Bashkortostan and the Russian Protection Ministry financially incentivized servicemen by providing 200,000 rubles for signing the army contract and a pair of,000 rubles for on daily basis served.[37] Russian outlet Baza additionally reported that three unknown assailants carried out an unspecified assault on the 488th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the twentieth Mixed Arms Army army unit in Klintsy, Bryansk Oblast, probably in protest of Russian covert mobilization practices.[38]

Exercise in Russian-occupied Areas (Russian goal: consolidate administrative management of occupied areas; set circumstances for potential annexation into the Russian Federation or another future political association of Moscow’s selecting)

Russian authorities continued to take measures to increase administrative management of occupied areas of Ukraine on July 6. The Russian-backed head of the Kharkiv Oblast occupation administration, Vitaly Ganchev, claimed that Russian forces management roughly 20% of Kharkiv Oblast and that Russian authorities intend to create 4 occupational districts in Kharkiv Oblast—the Izyum, Kupyansk, Vovchansk, and Kharkiv districts.[39] Ganchev additionally claimed that residents of occupied Kharkiv Oblast are voicing a widespread want for Russian citizenship and inquiring about Russian passports.[40] Ukraine’s Kherson Oblast head Serhiy Khlan, nevertheless, indicated that Russian authorities will probably wrestle to impose efficient “passportization” measures in occupied Kherson Oblast, issues that can probably additionally apply to different areas of Ukraine.[41] Khlan said that even when Russian authorities distribute 200 passports per day, with no days off, they are going to solely distribute 6,000 passports in a single month, which quantities to a small portion of your complete inhabitants residing in occupied Kherson. Khlan additionally remarked that almost all of these ready in queues for Russian passports are pensioners. That is notable due to latest reviews that Russian authorities in Kherson instituted ruble funds for pensioners and that receiving pensions is contingent on holding a Russian passport.[42] Russian authorities will probably proceed to wrestle to successfully perform “passportization” and rely closely on coercing residents of occupied areas into Russian citizenship.

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