As Russia continues its assault on Ukraine, the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Analysis Lab (DFRLab) is preserving an in depth eye on Russia’s actions throughout the army, cyber, and data domains. With greater than seven years of expertise monitoring the state of affairs in Ukraine, in addition to Russia’s use of propaganda and disinformation to undermine the United States, NATO, and the European Union, the DFRLab’s international workforce presents the newest installment of the Russian Struggle Report.
Safety
Drone footage confirms failed Russian army pontoon crossing in Donbas
Monitoring narratives
Professional-Kremlin sources misrepresent US actions to assist Ukraine
Worldwide reactions
Flower removing from Victory Day memorial in Latvia sparks political tensions
Drone footage confirms failed Russian army pontoon crossing in Donbas
On Might 11, reviews surfaced of Ukrainian forces efficiently destroying a Russian unit attempting to cross the strategically necessary river of Siversky Donets within the Donbas area. The reviews had been supported by drone photographs exhibiting the obliteration of the Russian items at their crossing level, which the DFRLab has geolocated to the river in query.
In accordance with a tweet printed by the Ukrainian Ministry of Protection, the Ukrainian Army artillerymen of the seventeenth Tank Brigade “have opened the vacation season” on Russian armed items. The Siverskyi Donets River, which flows from southern Russia by means of the separatist managed areas of Donbas, has develop into a barrier for Russian forces attempting to maneuver deeper into Ukrainian territory. Some reviews recommended that Russian items tried to cross the river 5 occasions, nevertheless this data couldn’t be independently verified.
Drone footage of the incident allowed the scene to be simply geolocated to an space only a few miles from the Ukrainian city of Belohorivka, in Luhansk Oblast. The DFRLab then cross-referenced the drone footage with satellite tv for pc imagery captured the day after the incident. For instance, a Planet.com satellite tv for pc picture taken on Might 12 reveals the stays of the pontoon bridge (marked in blue). This confirmed the photographs shared by Ukrainian Ministry of Protection as real.
In accordance with one estimate, Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian pontoon bridge along with at the very least six tanks, fourteen BMP armored autos, seven MT-LB amphibious autos, a tugboat and 5 different armored autos. A separate visible calculation carried out by open supply researcher @Blue_Sauron, seventy-three items of Russian tools had been destroyed or deserted. If correct, this might represent a complete battalion tactical group (BTG).
—Lukas Andriukaitis, Affiliate Director, Brussels, Belgium
Professional-Kremlin Telegram channels share cast letter claiming Poland intends to maneuver troops into Ukraine
The Kremlin narrative that Poland plans to annex components of western Ukraine continues to be unfold by pro-Kremlin sources. The DFRLab beforehand reported on cast paperwork and pretend billboards that had been used to unfold this narrative in an obvious try to drive a wedge between Poland and Ukraine.
The newest iteration of this narrative entails one other cast letter, purportedly despatched from the Ukrainian Armed Forces to Sergiy Deineko, chairman of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine (SBGS). Within the letter, the armed forces inform Deineko that the Polish Protection Ministry has licensed a Polish-Lithuanian peacekeeping contingent to be deployed into Ukrainian territory “with the aim of guaranteeing the protection and safety of the western a part of our state.” The letter states that the peacekeeping contingent will mix 4 battalions comprised of 9,500 troops and 279 items. The so-called peacekeeping contingent is allegedly scheduled to enter Ukraine on Might 22 at 4am by means of the Rava-Ruska border checkpoint. The solid letter requests the SBGS assist facilitate the crossing.
SBGS debunked the letter, saying that there aren’t any bodily copies of such paperwork, as they’re sometimes despatched by means of an digital system. SBGS confirmed that it didn’t obtain the letter and stated that the Ukrainian Armed Forces didn’t writer the doc. Moreover, the letter included a number of grammatical errors; for instance, it stated, “польско-украіінського” (Polish-Ukrainian) as an alternative of “польсько-українського,” the correct technique to write the phrase “Polish-Ukrainian.” Different grammatical errors within the letter recommend it could have been auto-translated utilizing software program fairly than written by a local Ukrainian speaker.
Notably, pro-Kremlin sources additionally doubted the letter’s authenticity however selected to share it anyway. A number of Russian Telegram channels forwarded the message. Conspiracy-leaning Twitter accounts additionally unfold the letter.
—Roman Osadchuk, Analysis Affiliate
Professional-Kremlin sources misrepresent US actions to assist Ukraine
On Might 9, US President Joe Biden signed into regulation a invoice expediting the supply of army help to Ukraine. Two days later, the Russian Telegram channel Nezygar printed a submit stating that the first beneficiaries of this regulation could be the “arms foyer and trade teams that sponsored Biden,” alongside “the UK, Israel, and the Swedish-Norwegian arms consortium.”
Nezygar additionally recommended that the arms trade is inflating costs by 30 %. With out proof, the channel asserted that the US has already invested “funds earned from the army price range” into liquefied pure gasoline (LNG) tools and applied sciences “deliberate to be launched within the ports of Romania and Bulgaria, after the entire partition of Ukraine.” The channel additionally shared a debunked declare that means Ukraine is promoting a considerable variety of weapons to nations in Africa and the Center East.
Some pro-Kremlin channels amplified Nezygar’s submit, but it surely acquired a second life after US Protection Secretary Lloyd Austin testified in regards to the 2023 US protection price range earlier than a Home committee listening to. Austin acknowledged that for the reason that US doesn’t have folks on the bottom in Ukraine, weapons accountability is of excessive precedence. Professional-Kremlin media shared this story with deceptive headlines similar to “Secretary of Protection calls for management over transferred ammunition.” Professional-Kremlin Telegram channels additionally amplified the articles.
Oleg Tsarev, a pro-Russian political determine, shared a submit that falsely claimed Austin had stated 15 to twenty % of US weapons despatched to Ukraine “immediately go to the nations of North, West and Central Africa.” He added that different Western weapons are despatched to Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Myanmar. Tsarev’s submit was amplified by different pro-Kremlin channels.
—Roman Osadchuk, Analysis Affiliate
Flower removing from Victory Day memorial in Latvia sparks political tensions
On the Might 9 Victory Day vacation, Russians in Latvia gathered on the Victory Memorial in Riga to put flowers and mark Russia’s defeat of Nazi Germany. The following morning, photographs and a video surfaced on-line exhibiting municipality employees in Riga utilizing a tractor to take away the flowers, sparking outrage.
The Victory Memorial in Riga has been the positioning of Victory Day occasions for the reason that early 2000s, when Russian President Vladimir Putin got here to energy. For a lot of Latvians, nevertheless, the monument is a reminder of Soviet occupation and the “Russkiy Mir” ideology promoted by the Kremlin overseas.
In response to the removing of the flowers, Alexey Roslikov, a Latvian pro-Russian politician, printed a submit on Fb and Telegram stating, “I offer you my phrase to tear [apart] and defeat these devils,” suggesting violence in opposition to those that made the choice to take away the flowers. Roslikov later wrote that Fb eliminated the submit and restricted his account.
Different pro-Kremlin activists in Latvia, similar to Vladimir Linderman, referred to as for a “headquarters for the safety of the monument.” Saskana, a pro-Russian occasion that took a stance in opposition to Russia’s warfare in Ukraine, condemned decisionmakers in Riga and referred to as the act a “provocation.” The Union of Latvian Russians, a pro-Kremlin political occasion, referred to as for a protest on Might 13 in Riga’s Previous City. The Russian embassy in Latvia additionally condemned the motion.
News in regards to the removing of the flowers was shared on pro-Kremlin Telegram channels, similar to Mash, Shot, and Pul 3. Kremlin-controlled media shops similar to Zvezda, Rosiyskaya Gazeta, Sputnik Latvia, and Vesti.ru additionally shared the story. All of those shops are blocked in Latvia, however are accessible to customers using VPN software program.
In response to the flower removing, some residents returned to the monument on Might 10 to depart extra flowers. Professional-Russian political events and pro-Kremlin NGOs printed posts expressing solidarity with these leaving flowers. An impromptu public gathering additionally shaped, with the gang singing Soviet songs enjoying loudly from vehicles.
The Victory Memorial is controversial, as some Latvians see the monument as an emblem of Latvian occupation by the Soviet Union in 1945. Consequently, some members of the general public reported the gathering to the police. Although police had been already current, a bigger contingent of officers arrived and dispersed the gang. At the moment, the monument is barricaded by police.
The Kremlin-controlled TV channel Perviy Kanal reported on the Might 10 protest and in contrast Latvian law enforcement officials to Nazis. In a assertion Latvian State Police acknowledged, “In some circumstances drive was used whereas detaining individuals.”
The controversy raised political tensions throughout the nation. There have been requires Latvian Inside Minister Maria Golubeva to resign, and police had been criticized for what some folks perceived as a gradual response. Latvian State Police acknowledged they’ve initiated an inner investigation.
There’s at present a invoice in Latvian Parliament that may permit for the demolishment of the Victory Memorial. At the moment, the monument is protected by a bilateral Latvian-Russian settlement regarding the preservation of burial websites and monuments commemorating victims of World Struggle II. The invoice emerged after Russia invaded Ukraine.
On Might 11, a crowdfunding marketing campaign was launched to boost funds for the demolition of the monument. On the time of publishing, it had raised greater than €220,000. Russian social media customers in Latvia stated the fundraising marketing campaign was a rip-off, a provocation, and a waste of cash.
—Nika Aleksejeva, Lead Researcher, Riga, Latvia
Picture: Utilizing drone footage equipped by the Ukrainian Protection Ministry, the DFRLab confirmed the incident came about close to the Russian city of Belohorivka. ((Supply: @DefenceU/archive)
